Average Salary Hike Forecast of 3.1% for Next Year.

This is encouraging news. If you expected no raises or reduced working hours in 2027 because of a shaky economy, recent survey data suggests some relief.

Normandin Beaudry, an actuarial and total rewards consulting firm, surveyed over 800 Canadian organizations for its 16th annual Salary Increase Survey. The results reveal that employers plan to keep salary increase budgets relatively stable for 2027, averaging 3.1%, excluding salary freezes. This figure matches the 2026 budget.

What’s pleasantly surprising is that this stability persists despite what economists are calling a “technical recession” currently affecting Canada. Many people assume a slowing economy will automatically lead to smaller raises, or no raises at all, but that is not the case for Canadian employers.

So, what does a 3.1% increase actually mean?  

For a Canadian earning $65,000, a 3.1% increase is about $2,015 a year. While this isn’t guaranteed, it’s a reasonable benchmark to consider during performance reviews or job offer discussions.

However, not every industry is planning the same salary increase. Normandin Beaudry’s data shows that several sectors anticipate higher-than-average budgets for 2027, as listed below: 

1.   Telecommunications, data processing, and warehousing: 3.4%
2.   Finance and insurance: 3.4%
3.   Real estate, rental, and leasing: 3.3%
4.   Technology: 3.3%
5.   Construction: 3.3%
6.   Professional, scientific, and technical services: 3.2%

If you work in one of these sectors, the 3.1% national average might underestimate what you can realistically request. Knowing where your industry stands relative to the average gives you a solid basis for negotiation, rather than relying on guesswork.

But there’s more good news.  

Beyond general budget increases, 46% of organizations plan to allocate an average additional 0.9% to address specific compensation pressures. Employers will use these funds for market-driven adjustments, retaining critical employees, and rewarding top performers.

This extra budget matters because it isn’t automatically available to everyone; it generally goes to employees who can show their role is hard to replace or that their pay has fallen behind market rates. If you don’t advocate for yourself, you are less likely to be considered for this increase.

Here’s a checklist to help you navigate this:

1.   Research where your industry compares to the 3.1% national average.
2.   Gather evidence that your role is in high demand or difficult to replace, as this will help you tap into an additional 0.9% pool.
3.   Treat 3.1% as a minimum to negotiate from, not a maximum.
4.   If your raise is below 3.1% with no explanation, directly ask your employer what budget was allocated and why.

Happy negotiating!

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