US-Israel war exposes gulf security model, shatters safe haven image

DUBAI (MNTV) — The US-Israel war on Iran has upended the long-standing security and economic model of Gulf Arab states, exposing deep vulnerabilities in a region once marketed as a stable refuge amid Middle East turmoil.

For years, countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates positioned themselves as safe and prosperous hubs despite being surrounded by conflict zones such as Syria, Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen.

While occasional attacks from groups like the Houthis posed limited threats, these states had largely avoided a direct retaliation from Iran.

That changed dramatically on February 28, when Washington and its ally launched a war on Iran, triggering a sweeping regional escalation.

In response, Tehran directed approximately 83 percent of its missile and drone strikes toward US bases in Gulf countries, with those in the UAE absorbing the highest number of attacks — even more than Israel itself.

The scale and intensity of the strikes have shaken the carefully constructed image of the Gulf as secure investment destinations. Analysts and investors now warn that the perception of these states as safe havens has been severely damaged.

A long-time investor in the region described the shift as profound, saying the illusion of stability has been “shattered” and will be difficult to restore.

The investor added that Gulf economies are now likely to face higher risk premiums, with businesses and investors reassessing their exposure to a region newly seen as vulnerable.

The fallout extends beyond immediate security concerns, striking at the core of ambitious economic transformation plans in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Both countries have spent years and vast financial resources attempting to diversify their economies away from oil by attracting foreign investment and positioning themselves as global business hubs. The war, however, has introduced uncertainty that threatens to derail those efforts.

The conflict has also created what analysts describe as a growing strategic contradiction for Gulf states. On one hand, they remain heavily dependent on the United States for military protection, with no viable alternative security guarantor in the short term.

On the other, it is the actions of Washington and Israel that have triggered the very instability now placing these states at risk.

This paradox leaves Gulf governments navigating a precarious path, caught between reliance on a security partner whose policies have intensified regional threats and the absence of any credible replacement.

Looking ahead, two possible scenarios are shaping regional calculations. If the current ceasefire holds, it could open the door to a limited framework agreement between the United States and Iran, potentially addressing immediate flashpoints such as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and extending diplomatic engagement.

However, if talks collapse, the region risks a renewed escalation. This could include further Iranian strikes on Gulf states or expanded attacks targeting energy infrastructure, deepening economic and security instability.

Regardless of the outcome, the war has fundamentally altered the strategic landscape of the Gulf. What was once seen as a zone of relative stability has been thrust into the front lines of a broader conflict, exposing the fragility of a system built on external security guarantees.

As the crisis unfolds, Gulf states now face a new reality — one in which their security, economic ambitions, and global standing are increasingly shaped by decisions made in Washington and Tel Aviv, rather than within their own borders.