Turkiye and Iraq deepen partnership amid regional upheaval

ANKARA, Türkiye (MNTV) — Türkiye and Iraq are developing a deeper strategic partnership as regional upheaval, economic ambitions and shifting security priorities push the two countries toward closer cooperation, according to an analysis published by the Arab Center Washington DC.

The analysis, authored by Salim Çevik and published by the Center on Aug. 26, says relations have moved significantly beyond the security disputes that dominated ties after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, with Baghdad and Ankara increasingly cooperating on trade, energy, water and counterterrorism.

A major driver of the rapprochement is Iraq’s planned Development Road, a roughly 1,200-kilometer transport corridor intended to connect the Grand Faw Port in southern Iraq with Türkiye and European markets. 

The project is central to Baghdad’s effort to diversify its economy beyond oil while advancing Ankara’s ambition to become a major regional transportation and logistics hub.

The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Israel-Iran war has increased the strategic importance of the proposed overland route. 

A connection through Iraq and Türkiye could provide an alternative pathway to European markets and reduce Baghdad’s dependence on Gulf shipping routes.

Security ties have also undergone a notable shift. Iraq designated the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) a banned organization in 2024 and subsequently signed a security and counterterrorism agreement with Türkiye establishing mechanisms for bilateral coordination.

The PKK’s decision to dissolve and disarm in 2025 could further alter the security relationship, although questions remain over the future of former fighters and PKK-linked structures in areas including Sinjar and Makhmour.

Economic cooperation has expanded alongside security coordination. Türkiye and Iraq are working toward broader energy cooperation, while Turkish Petroleum has moved into oil production in Kirkuk. 

The two countries are also discussing arrangements under which Turkish companies could undertake infrastructure projects in Iraq in exchange for Iraqi natural resources.

However, the analysis warns that the partnership remains unequal. Türkiye retains significant leverage over security and water issues, including through its military presence in northern Iraq and its upstream position on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.

Iraq’s dependence on Turkish water flows has become particularly sensitive as drought and deteriorating infrastructure worsen the country’s water crisis. 

A recent framework involving Turkish companies and Iraqi oil revenues for water infrastructure did not establish new commitments regarding the volume of water Türkiye would release.

The Development Road also faces substantial obstacles inside Iraq. Financing remains unresolved, with the first phase estimated to require about $20 billion. 

Political factions and regional authorities could also resist projects depending on how contracts, transit revenues and infrastructure benefits are distributed.

The Kurdistan Regional Government has additional concerns because a proposed border connection between Iraq and Türkiye outside the Kurdistan Region could weaken Erbil’s control over an important trade route and reduce its traditional influence over Türkiye-Iraq relations.

The analysis argues that Iraq’s balancing act between Iran, Türkiye and the United States is becoming increasingly difficult. Iran continues to wield substantial political, economic and security influence in Iraq, while Washington is seeking to strengthen Baghdad’s control over armed groups aligned with Tehran.

Türkiye and the United States consequently have increasingly overlapping interests in a stronger Iraqi central government. 

For Ankara, a more powerful Baghdad could better control its territory, cooperate against the PKK and implement major economic agreements. Washington likewise favors greater state authority over armed groups.

Despite this convergence, the analysis concludes that Iraq is unlikely to abandon its relationship with Iran in favor of Türkiye or the United States. 

Baghdad remains constrained by Iran’s influence and Iraq’s fragmented political system, making a gradual strengthening of state institutions more realistic than a sudden geopolitical realignment.

For Türkiye, the emerging partnership therefore offers an opportunity to expand its economic and strategic role in Iraq while benefiting from a regional order in which Baghdad becomes more capable of controlling its territory, securing trade corridors and implementing long-term agreements.