Stalled Bangsamoro peace could fuel ISIS activity in Philippines, warns peace monitor

By Iftikhar Gilani

ANKARA (MNTV) — Hüseyin Oruç, vice president of the Turkish humanitarian organization IHH (Humanitarian Relief Foundation) and a member of the Third Party Monitoring Team (TPMT) overseeing implementation of the Bangsamoro peace process, is issuing a blunt warning: if progress stalls further, global terror group ISIS could expand its footprint in Mindanao by exploiting public frustration and armed “vacuum” conditions.

In an exclusive interview, Oruç outlines how the peace process, launched through landmark agreements between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), split into two tracks: the political transition toward an elected Bangsamoro government and normalization, including decommissioning combatants and weapons, socioeconomic reintegration, dismantling private armed groups, redeployment of state forces, policing reforms and transitional justice.

Oruç says the decommissioning process has reached its final phase on paper, with roughly 26,145 MILF combatants and about 4,500 weapons already decommissioned, but the final tranche has stalled after the MILF suspended further steps in August 2025.

He argues that the government’s unfulfilled promises, especially delayed socioeconomic packages for decommissioned combatants and a lack of action against private armed groups have weakened confidence.

He also criticizes what he describes as political interference in the Bangsamoro Transition Authority, including leadership decisions that triggered internal upheaval within the MILF.

The result, he says, is a dangerous moment: trust has frayed, respect between parties has eroded, and young people are again speaking openly about independence.

In such an environment, Oruç warns, ISIS linked actors can recruit more easily, with potentially destabilizing consequences for Bangsamoro, the Philippines, and the wider region.

Hüseyin Oruç is vice president of IHH, the Turkey-based Humanitarian Relief Foundation known for large-scale emergency relief work in conflict zones and for sustaining long-term humanitarian programs where state capacity is weak or contested.

Over the last two decades, Oruç has been involved in complex settings where humanitarian delivery intersects with political negotiations and ceasefires.

His work has taken him into environments shaped by insurgency, fragile governance, and international mediation, which is why he speaks not only as an aid leader but also as someone who has observed how peace processes succeed and how they fail.

In the southern Philippines, Oruç serves on the Third Party Monitoring Team, an international mechanism invited by both the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front to monitor the implementation of the peace agreements that created the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.

The monitoring role is not ceremonial. It exists because peace implementation is not only about signatures on paper; it is about sequencing, confidence, and reciprocity. Armed groups are asked to stand down in phases, governments are asked to deliver reforms and reintegration, and both sides must move together to prevent a security gap.

Oruç’s warning is rooted in this practical reality.

He argues that Bangsamoro is at risk of sliding into a familiar pattern seen in other conflict zones: when promised reforms stall, when elections are delayed, when combatants do not receive reintegration support, and when rival armed actors remain on the ground, frustration grows. That frustration becomes a recruiting pool. Oruç says the danger is not theoretical.

In the absence of real progress, a vacuum forms, and ISIS-linked networks can exploit that vacuum by offering angry young men a new cause, new weapons, and a new identity.

He insists that the peace process remains the only viable path but stresses that it must be credible.

In his view, credibility depends on honoring agreements, restoring respect between negotiating parties, and moving the political and normalization tracks forward in parallel.

Without that, he warns, the space opens for extremist actors to expand, triggering renewed instability in a region that has already paid an enormous human cost.