The Curious Case of Fluctuating Gas Prices in the GTA.
Drivers across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) can expect noticeable relief at the pumps as gas prices are set to drop by 9 cents tonight (Thursday/Friday). But take a pause before you start celebrating.
So, the good part first. According to Dan McTeague, a gas price analyst, the region’s prices are forecasted to decrease from 187.9 cents per liter to 178.9 cents.
McTeague explains that “the oil companies want to deplete their summer inventory. Next week, they will need to switch over to a winter blend, which has a different formulation. Therefore, they are incentivizing consumers with a small price reduction.”
Another analyst, Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En‑Pro International, predicts a slightly smaller drop of 8 cents, bringing prices down to 179.9 cents per liter.
However, both McTeague and McKnight agree that this relief will be short-lived, with gas prices expected to rise again by about 5 cents across the GTA on Saturday.
Diesel Prices
McKnight notes that diesel prices are set to increase by 9 cents across much of the country on Friday, except in Halifax, where the increase will be 8 cents.
Conversely, McTeague forecasts that diesel will rise by 9 cents per liter on Friday (midnight), followed by an additional increase of 3 to 4 cents on Saturday. He anticipates diesel prices could reach $2.50 per liter by the weekend, up from the current price of approximately $ 2.36 per liter in Toronto as of Thursday.
“We have never seen anything like this,” McTeague stated. “We are in uncharted waters regarding how high prices are going and how long they will remain elevated.”
McTeague attributes the increase in diesel prices primarily to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as tensions between the United States and Iran.
Russia supplies about 15% of the world’s diesel fuel, or about four million barrels per day, and this supply has been severely disrupted. Additionally, the Persian Gulf region is not producing diesel fuel at its usual pace of four to five million barrels per day due to regional conflicts. Russia is typically the world’s second-largest diesel exporter, following the U.S., while the Persian Gulf accounts for about 10% of global diesel trade.
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