Israeli opposition leads Netanyahu bloc in new poll, but neither side has majority
Opposition projected to win 57 seats against Netanyahu bloc’s 51, while Arab parties secure 12 seats in 120-member Knesset
JERUSALEM (AA) — Israel’s opposition has opened a six-seat lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing bloc in a new opinion poll, although neither side would have enough seats to form a government on its own.
The survey, carried out by the private Lazar Research Institute among 600 Israelis with a 4.4% margin of error, projected 57 seats for Jewish opposition parties and 51 for parties aligned with Netanyahu if elections were held Friday, according to Israeli daily Maariv.
Arab parties were projected to win another 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.
The results come ahead of Israel’s Oct. 27 general elections and highlight continued uncertainty over the composition of the next government.
Neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition reaches the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority.
The findings also mark a shift from a Channel 13 poll released Thursday, which put Netanyahu’s camp and the opposition level at 53 seats each, with Arab parties projected to take 14 seats.
Despite the opposition’s advantage in the latest survey, most leaders of Jewish opposition parties have ruled out forming a government dependent on support from Arab lawmakers.
Netanyahu bloc gains ground
Maariv said Netanyahu’s alliance reached 51 seats for the first time since May, while the opposition slipped by two seats to 57 and Arab parties lost one seat.
The improvement was partly attributed to Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s far-right Religious Zionism party crossing the electoral threshold and securing five seats.
Ofer Winter’s far-right Your People Israel party was also projected to enter parliament with four seats.
Both parties, however, remain close to the electoral threshold, meaning small changes in voter support could significantly alter the overall balance between the blocs.
Projected seat distribution
Netanyahu’s Likud party remained the largest force in his camp with 20 seats.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power was projected to win eight seats, while the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties received seven each.
Religious Zionism was projected to take five seats and Your People Israel four.
On the opposition side, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party led with 23 seats.
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Together party followed with 15, while Yair Golan’s Democrats received 10 seats and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu nine.
Among Arab parties, the Joint List was projected to win seven seats and Mansour Abbas’ United Arab List, or Ra’am, five.
Netanyahu trails rivals for premiership
The poll also showed Netanyahu behind both Eisenkot and Bennett in direct comparisons over who respondents preferred as prime minister.
Eisenkot was favored by 48% of respondents, compared with 39% for Netanyahu, while 13% were undecided.
Bennett also led Netanyahu, with 43% support against 39%, while 15% were undecided.
A Channel 13 survey released Thursday similarly placed Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu by 47% to 37%.
Majority fears another Iran war
The Lazar poll also found that 55% of respondents feared another war between Israel and Iran in the near future.
Thirty-nine percent said they were not concerned about another conflict, while 6% remained undecided.
The survey also reflected deep political divisions over claims of “internal betrayal” during the events of October 2023.
Forty percent said they believed such betrayal had occurred, compared with 44% who rejected the claim. Another 16% were undecided.
Among supporters of Netanyahu’s coalition, 61% believed there had been “internal betrayal,” while 64% of opposition voters rejected the allegation.
Israel, with US support, launched its genocide in Gaza on Oct. 8, 2023, killing 73,470 Palestinians and injuring 174,540 as of Thursday. Many victims remain trapped under rubble or in areas inaccessible to rescue teams.
The Oct. 27 election is expected to be pivotal for Netanyahu, who continues to face corruption allegations, accusations of authoritarianism and criticism over his government’s handling of the October 2023 attacks and the Gaza war.
Netanyahu has led the current government since December 2022. His coalition has been widely described as the most right-wing in Israel’s history.
The Israeli prime minister is also wanted by the International Criminal Court over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.
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