As births fall, Türkiye puts family first

By Shabana Ayaz

ANKARA, Türkiye (MNTV) — Türkiye’s birth rate has fallen to levels once associated mainly with ageing European societies, prompting President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government to put marriage, children and the traditional family at the heart of an increasingly assertive social and demographic policy. 

That campaign entered a new phase this week. Authorities launched a nationwide operation called “Ailem Güvende,” or “My Family Is Safe,” targeting 162 suspects, nine associations and 13 businesses across 15 provinces.

Justice Minister Akın Gürlek said investigations involve allegations of facilitating prostitution, producing and distributing obscene material, drug offenses, and exposing children to inappropriate content.

Authorities have seized digital material, blocked websites and social media accounts and begun examining foreign funding received by some associations. 

Organizations promoting same-sex relationships and gender-identity causes have been among those caught up in the investigation. Eight members of Kaos GL were jailed pending trial Wednesday, while seven others, including a journalist, were released under judicial supervision.

At least 54 people have been jailed in the broader investigations, according to Reuters. 

The government says the operation is directly connected with Erdoğan’s “2026-2035 Decade of Family and Population,” an ambitious program intended to strengthen marriage, encourage childbirth and reverse Türkiye’s demographic decline. 

Rights organizations strongly contest the government’s approach. They say criminal investigations, arrests and restrictions on associations are encroaching on freedom of expression, association and private life. Protests against the raids have themselves led to scores of detentions. 

Behind that confrontation, however, lies a demographic problem that reaches considerably further than the present controversy.

From young nation to fertility crisis, Türkiye was long distinguished from much of Europe by its relatively young population and higher birth rate.

That advantage is disappearing rapidly. Official figures from the Turkish Statistical Institute, or TÜİK, show the country’s fertility rate fell to 1.42 children per woman in 2025, compared with 2.38 in 2001. Only 895,374 babies were born last year.

Türkiye has now remained below the population replacement rate of 2.1 for nine consecutive years. The speed of the transformation is particularly striking.

Between 2013 and 2023, Türkiye’s fertility rate fell from 2.11 to 1.51. A comparison of 34 European countries found that Türkiye recorded the steepest decline over that decade, both in absolute and percentage terms. 

Türkiye’s fertility rate is not yet below the European Union average. The EU rate stood at 1.34 in 2024, compared with Türkiye’s 1.48 that year. But Türkiye is rapidly moving toward the demographic conditions that have troubled Europe for years. 

For Erdoğan, the trend has become an issue of national survival.

His government declared 2025 the “Year of the Family” and followed it with the 2026-2035 “Decade of Family and Population.” Financial assistance for childbirth, marriage loans and other measures are intended to make marriage and raising children easier for younger Turks.

The concern is not difficult to understand.

Fewer births today mean fewer workers and taxpayers in future decades. At the same time, longer life expectancy produces a larger elderly population requiring pensions, healthcare and family support.

The demographic arithmetic has therefore transformed what was once largely a religious and social debate into an economic one as well.

Family and procreation

The government’s answer is built around a straightforward proposition: strengthening marriage and family life is essential if Türkiye wants more children.

That approach has particular resonance in a Muslim-majority society.

In Islamic thought, marriage is not simply a private relationship between two adults. It establishes rights and responsibilities between spouses, provides a framework for bringing children into the world, and places obligations on parents for their upbringing, education, and moral development.

Procreation is consequently connected with responsibility. Parents are expected not merely to have children but to raise, educate, protect and provide for them.

Mainstream Islamic jurisprudence permits sexual relations within marriage between a man and a woman and prohibits same-sex sexual acts.

Same-sex marriage is therefore outside the traditional Islamic conception of marriage. Türkiye does not recognize same-sex marriage.

The current dispute goes further, however. It concerns whether the state should actively resist the public promotion of social concepts that challenge its preferred understanding of marriage, sex and gender, particularly when children are involved.

The President has increasingly argued that it should. 

Pornography and changing social norms

The “Ailem Güvende” investigations bring several issues that are sometimes discussed separately under the same umbrella.

The Justice Ministry says investigators are examining alleged prostitution, obscene material, drugs and content accessible to children.

It also says financial investigators are examining large transfers from foreign public bodies and organizations to some associations and whether those funds have any connection with activities under investigation. 

Falling marriage rates, delayed marriage, later motherhood, housing costs, economic insecurity, changing expectations of women and men, and the difficulty of balancing employment with raising children have all been identified as factors behind declining fertility in developed societies.

Türkiye is experiencing many of these changes at a remarkable speed. Turkish women are also having their first children later. The average age at first birth rose from 25.5 in 2014 to 27.3 in 2024. 

Organized advocacy for same-sex relationships and gender identity has existed in Türkiye for decades.

Groups began becoming visible during the late 1980s and 1990s. Kaos GL emerged in Ankara, while Lambdaistanbul became active in Istanbul.

An attempt to organize a Pride event in Istanbul was prevented in 1993. The city’s first Pride march was eventually held in 2003.

For several years, such gatherings expanded considerably. The political environment later changed, and Istanbul Pride has been prohibited since 2015. Authorities have also restricted similar gatherings elsewhere.

The latest campaign represents a further escalation because authorities are no longer dealing only with street demonstrations.

Association offices and homes have been searched, websites and social media accounts blocked, and activists detained.

Prosecutors have accused some individuals of disseminating obscene material, while the organizations involved reject the accusations and say legitimate civil-society activities are being criminalized. 

Erdoğan’s emphasis on traditional family life also reflects attitudes held by a large section of Turkish society.

Western governments and international organizations support associations working on sexuality and gender issues.

Many view it as an attempt to export Western social norms into societies with different religious and cultural traditions.

Gürlek says the investigations concern criminal organizations, exploitation networks and illegal activities targeting children, young people and families. He says the Constitution places a responsibility on the state to protect families and children. 

Protecting children from pornography, sexual exploitation or drugs commands support well beyond religious constituencies. 

If Türkiye wants families to have more children, strengthening marriage culturally may be only part of the solution.

Young couples also need affordable housing, stable employment, accessible childcare, sufficient parental leave, and confidence that having a second or third child will not place unbearable pressure on household finances or end a mother’s career.

Experience elsewhere shows how difficult it is for governments to reverse a fertility decline once smaller families and delayed parenthood become established social patterns due to rising costs.

In little more than a decade, a country once distinguished from Europe by its youthful demographics has recorded the steepest fertility decline among 34 European countries. 

That provides the broader context for Erdoğan’s family campaign.

Türkiye’s answer is now beginning to take shape. Whether its combination of financial incentives, cultural policy and tougher enforcement can actually reverse the country’s demographic decline will be measurable not in political speeches, but ultimately in marriages, births and the ability of families to raise the next generation.

Shabana Ayaz is a Pakistani journalist based in Ankara.