2026: GTA Home Prices Expected to Be the Lowest in Canada

News: According to a report released today by a leading Canadian brokerage, national aggregate home prices are projected to rise by 1% annually, reaching approximately $823,000 by the fourth quarter of 2026. While prices for single-family detached homes are expected to increase by 2% to about $877,000, condominium prices are expected to decline by 2.5% to around $565,000 nationwide.

This forecast applies to almost all major urban centres across Canada, except for Vancouver and Toronto. These cities are expected to present the lowest-priced home-buying opportunities for consumers in 2026.

Rest of Canada: Market observers view this scenario as part of the “market reset” that real estate experts have been anticipating for the past three years. Key factors contributing to this potentially revitalized market include lower borrowing costs (with the key borrowing rate at 2.25% at the time of this report), a low probability of the Bank of Canada further cutting rates in the near future, healthy inventory levels, and reduced competition.

Together, these conditions create a more favourable environment for home buyers and sellers, allowing them to negotiate and finalize long-overdue deals.

However, the forecast for Canada’s two most expensive real estate markets, Vancouver and Toronto, could be a game-changer for buyers looking to have their cake and eat it, too.

Toronto: Experts predict home prices will decrease by 4.5% year over year by the fourth quarter of 2026, averaging around $1,055,000. The aggregate cost of single-family detached properties is expected to decline by 1% to approximately $1,383,000, while the median price of condominiums may drop by as much as 6.5% to around $616,000.

It’s worth noting that last month (November 2025), the average selling price for a home in the Greater Toronto Area fell by 6.4% (compared to November 2024), reaching $1,039,458.

Other Canadian Cities:

– Vancouver: Expected to see a 3.5% decrease in the median home price, levelling off at $1,148,000.

– Montreal: Home prices are projected to rise by 5%, reaching $677,000.

– Quebec City: Defying trends seen in other Canadian cities for the second consecutive year, Quebec City is forecast to experience the most significant gains, with an anticipated 12% increase in aggregate home prices, peaking at $502,000.

– Calgary: The aggregate home price is projected to rise by 1.5% year-over-year to reach $701,061.

– Ottawa: The average home price could increase by 2%, reaching around $789,000.

– Edmonton, Halifax, and Winnipeg are also expected to see home prices rise by no more than 2% in 2026.