Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile nears 200 warheads, as South Asia stays volatile

WASHINGTON (MNTV) — Pakistan holds an estimated 170 nuclear warheads and is steadily modernizing its arsenal, according to the latest Nuclear Notebook published by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).

Analysts warn that South Asia remains one of the world’s most dangerous nuclear flash points, with both Pakistan and India locked in a volatile rivalry marked by wars, crises, and competing weapons programs.

The report, authored by FAS researchers Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, and Mackenzie Knight-Boyle, says Pakistan’s stockpile could expand to about 200 warheads by the late 2020s if current trends continue.

“With several new delivery systems in development, four plutonium production reactors, and an expanding uranium enrichment infrastructure, Pakistan’s stockpile has the potential to increase further,” the authors noted.

Unlike some other nuclear powers, Pakistan has deliberately avoided clarity on its nuclear doctrine. It has never adopted a “no first use” policy, leaving open the possibility of striking first if it perceives a grave threat to the country.

Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Khalid Kidwai, the former head of Pakistan’s National Command Authority and now an advisor, made this explicit in 2024.

He declared, “Pakistan does not have a No First Use policy. There should never ever be a doubt in anyone’s mind, friend or foe, that Pakistan’s operationally ready nuclear capability enables every Pakistani leader the liberty, the dignity and the courage to look straight into the Indian eye and never blink.”

Under what it calls “full spectrum deterrence,” Pakistan seeks to cover the entire spectrum of conflict, from battlefield use of tactical nuclear weapons to long-range strategic strikes.

The Nasr missile, a short-range system designed to counter India’s “Cold Start” doctrine, is emblematic of this approach.

Former Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhry once acknowledged the existence of these tactical weapons, while Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif said in 2016 that Pakistan would not hesitate to use them if its security was threatened.

India’s expanding capabilities

The report said that South Asia’s nuclear competition cannot be understood without considering India.

New Delhi also maintains a large and growing arsenal, estimated at more than 160 warheads, and has developed its own nuclear triad of land-based missiles, aircraft, and submarines.

Although India has officially committed to a no-first-use policy, analysts say its credibility is under debate.

Indian strategists have hinted that the policy could be reconsidered in light of Pakistan’s tactical weapons.

“Pakistan’s development of short-range nuclear systems was a direct response to India’s conventional war plans,” said Moeed Yusuf, a Pakistani analyst and former national security adviser.

“This dynamic has lowered the threshold for nuclear use in South Asia.”

Pakistan insists its arsenal is safe and well controlled. Warheads are stored in disassembled form, with components kept at separate locations.

The Strategic Plans Division, a specialized body reporting to the National Command Authority chaired by the prime minister, oversees everything from operational planning to storage and deployment.

“Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is simply a deterrent, to protect ourselves,” then-Prime Minister Imran Khan told an interviewer in 2021. “It is not an offensive thing.”

India and Pakistan have fought several wars since 1947 and endured repeated crises where nuclear threats loomed.

In February 2019, after a suicide bombing in Indian-administered Kashmir, Indian jets struck inside Pakistan, leading to aerial dogfights and the downing of an Indian plane.

Pakistan’s leadership hinted at possible nuclear options by convening its National Command Authority.

Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo later wrote that India and Pakistan came “close” to a nuclear exchange.

More recently, in May 2025, India launched missile strikes against Pakistani military sites after the Pahalgam attack in Kashmir. Although both sides quickly downplayed the clash, analysts warned that an accident or miscalculation could have escalated to the nuclear level.

“South Asia remains one of the most likely theaters for nuclear war,” said Christopher Clary, a U.S. scholar of South Asian security.

Missiles, submarines, and modernization

Pakistan’s arsenal is not limited to land-based missiles. The country is developing a sea-based deterrent, with the Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile expected to give it a second-strike capability.

The Pakistani Navy is also acquiring new Chinese-built submarines that could carry nuclear systems in the future.

On the air front, Pakistan’s aging Mirage fighters have been central to its nuclear role, particularly with the Ra’ad cruise missile.

But newer JF-17 fighters co-produced with China are being equipped to assume that role.

Land-based systems remain the backbone.

From short-range Nasr and Ghaznavi missiles to medium-range Shaheen systems capable of striking deep inside India, Pakistan’s missile forces are dispersed across garrisons and hardened underground facilities.

“Pakistan possesses the full spectrum of nuclear weapons in three categories: strategic, operational and tactical,” Kidwai has explained, adding that the country can strike “from zero meters to 2,750 kilometers.”

The expansion of South Asia’s nuclear capabilities has alarmed the world.

For Pakistan, the rationale remains clear: countering India’s conventional and nuclear forces. For India, it is about deterring both Pakistan and China. For the world, the concern is that an arms race is underway in a region with a history of war and fragile crisis management.

“Every time a crisis flares in South Asia, the nuclear shadow looms,” said Hans Kristensen of the FAS.

“Unlike the Cold War, where hotlines and treaties created guardrails, India and Pakistan lack the same depth of communication and confidence-building measures.”

As Pakistan modernizes and India expands, South Asia remains a flash point without resolution.

Both nations justify their arsenals as defensive, yet their rivalry ensures that each new system by one side spurs a response from the other.

With Kashmir unresolved, conventional imbalances widening, and tactical weapons lowering the threshold for use, the risk of miscalculation is real.

For the global community, the lesson is sobering: the world’s most dangerous nuclear confrontation may not be between Washington and Moscow, or Washington and Beijing, but between Islamabad and New Delhi.

Until durable mechanisms of restraint and dialogue take root, South Asia will remain perched on the edge of a nuclear precipice.