Record-Breaking Low-Pressure System Expected to Hit Ontario.
Ontario is preparing for a potentially record-breaking low-pressure system as a storm intensifies over the Great Lakes mid-week. The pressure could drop to 990 mb or lower, which may set a new June record for the lowest pressure in the area. This system is expected to bring strong winds, along with the possibility of heavy downpours and thunderstorms.
Most regions are anticipated to receive 20-40 mm of rain through Thursday, with localized areas potentially exceeding 50 mm. Although the system’s rapid movement will help limit extreme rainfall, its intensity and conditions will feel more like a fall storm than a summer one.
Tuesday (June 16, 2026): Thunderstorms with Heavy Rain and Hail.
A warm front will bring showers and thunderstorms to northeastern Ontario on Tuesday. Isolated severe storms are possible, posing threats of strong winds, hail over 2 cm in diameter, and heavy rainfall. In southern Ontario, pop-up afternoon showers are expected in inland areas before instability builds in the evening. Thunderstorms will spread across southwestern Ontario and along the shores of Lake Huron, moving inland into the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) overnight. Stronger storms near southern Georgian Bay and Lake Huron could bring heavy rain, strong winds, and small hail.
Wednesday (June 17, 2026): Strengthening Storm Could Break Records Near Windsor.
By Wednesday evening, the storm will bring warm frontal showers to southwestern Ontario and along the shores of Lake Huron. Rainfall will intensify overnight as the system moves across southern Ontario, extending into the GTA. Increased atmospheric moisture will lead to embedded thunderstorms with heavy to torrential rainfall. As the low-pressure system strengthens, strong winds are likely to develop, with gusts of 80-90+ km/h expected from Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This deep low-pressure system, potentially reaching 990 mb or lower, could set a new June record for the lowest pressure ever recorded.
Thursday (June 18, 2026): Rain and Winds Continue; Storm Shifts into Eastern Ontario.
Windy and wet conditions will persist on Thursday, becoming more widespread as the storm moves into eastern Ontario and Quebec.
Unsettled, Cooler-Than-Seasonal End to June.
The remainder of June is expected to bring near-seasonal to slightly cooler-than-seasonal temperatures on most days. Conditions will remain occasionally unsettled, with rainfall projected to be near the seasonal average across much of the region.
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