Israel may strike Iranian nuclear sites as US-Iran talks falter, new intelligence suggests

Military preparations observed as Trump administration pushes diplomacy; Israeli decision may hinge on outcome of nuclear negotiations

WASHINGTON (MNTV) — US intelligence agencies have obtained new information suggesting that Israel is preparing for a potential military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, even as President Donald Trump’s administration continues efforts to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with Tehran, multiple American officials familiar with the matter told CNN.

The intelligence — which includes intercepted Israeli communications and observed military activity — has heightened concerns in Washington that Israel could strike Iran unilaterally, potentially triggering a broader regional conflict in the Middle East.

The threat of escalation comes amid fragile US-led diplomatic efforts following the genocide in Gaza, which inflamed tensions across the region since 2023.

While US officials say no final decision has been made in Tel Aviv, signs of increased readiness — including the movement of air munitions and the completion of a key air exercise — have led analysts to believe the probability of a strike has grown.

Sources noted that Israel’s ultimate decision could be influenced by how it perceives the ongoing US-Iran talks and any resulting deal.

“The chance of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has gone up significantly in recent months,” one source familiar with the intelligence said.

“And the prospect of a Trump-negotiated US-Iran deal that doesn’t remove all of Iran’s uranium makes the chance of a strike more likely.”

Israeli officials have publicly and privately signaled the possibility of military action, intensifying pressure on both Iran and the US.

However, some US analysts believe this could also be a strategic move by Israel to pressure Tehran during negotiations rather than an immediate military plan.

Trump has previously threatened military action if talks with Iran fail, but has thus far remained committed to diplomacy.

In a letter sent to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in mid-March, Trump reportedly gave a 60-day deadline for diplomatic progress.

That deadline has now passed, and while negotiations have entered their sixth week, no final proposal has received Trump’s approval.

A senior Western diplomat who met with Trump this month said the US president was willing to give the talks only a few more weeks before considering military options.

Trump’s administration remains wary of entanglement but is stepping up intelligence-gathering to monitor the situation closely, a senior US official said.

The dilemma places Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a difficult position — caught between resisting a potential US-Iran deal deemed unsatisfactory by Israeli officials and maintaining strategic ties with Washington.

“It’s a real challenge for Netanyahu,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior US intelligence official. “Israeli decision-making is going to be predicated on US policy and the outcome of the talks.”

US officials note that Israel does not possess the capability to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure alone, especially without US assistance such as midair refueling and specialized bunker-busting munitions.

Nonetheless, an Israeli source told CNN that Israel would be prepared to act alone if it believes a “bad deal” is imminent.

“I think it’s more likely they strike to try and get the deal to fall apart if they think Trump is going to settle for a ‘bad deal,’” said one source familiar with the intelligence. “The Israelis have not been shy about signaling that to us … both publicly and privately.”

A February US intelligence assessment also concluded that Israel may try to exploit Iran’s degraded air defense systems, potentially using long-range missiles or air strikes.

However, the report warned that such an attack would only minimally delay Iran’s nuclear development.

Iran has showcased its military and missile power in 2024 retaliatory attacks against Israel, in which Iran’s missiles successfully intercepted Israeli defense systems and struck major facilities in Israel.

Meanwhile, the US-Iran talks remain stalled over Washington’s demand that Iran halt all uranium enrichment — a position Tehran rejects.

Iran argues that enrichment is a sovereign right under the UN’s Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and has refused to compromise.

Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy leading the negotiations, told ABC News that Washington “cannot allow even 1% of an enrichment capability” and has submitted a proposal intended to address Iran’s concerns. However, no agreement has been finalized, and both sides remain far apart.

Ayatollah Khamenei on Tuesday dismissed the likelihood of a deal, calling the US stance a “big mistake.”

Another round of indirect talks may take place in Europe this week, mediated by Oman, but sources say progress has been limited.

US intelligence agencies have continued to warn that Israeli military action remains a serious possibility this year, with one official reiterating: “It has consistently been the Israeli position that the military option is the only option to stopping Iran’s military nuclear program.”