Fragile truce wavers as US-Iran talks near in Islamabad

ANKARA, Türkiye (MNTV) — A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is coming under mounting strain on the eve of crucial talks in Islamabad, with fresh Israeli strikes, hardening rhetoric, and widening disagreements threatening to derail diplomacy before it begins.

Despite a two-week truce announced on the midnight of April 7-8, violence has persisted across the region. Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon have intensified, with at least 17 people killed in the past 12 hours in areas around Tyre and Sidon.

Bridges linking southern Lebanon to the rest of the country have been hit, disrupting civilian movement and complicating humanitarian access.

Iran has condemned the attacks as a direct violation of the ceasefire and warned that negotiations could become “meaningless” if Israel’s campaign continues. Tehran insists Lebanon is part of the truce, a position supported by Pakistan, which is hosting the talks.

However, Washington and Tel Aviv maintain that Lebanon falls outside the agreement, exposing a critical divide even before negotiations begin.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the terms of the ceasefire are “clear and explicit,” warning that the United States “must choose — ceasefire, or continued war via Israel.” Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who will co-lead Iran’s delegation, went further, saying Lebanon and the broader “Resistance Axis” are inseparable from the agreement and that violations would invite “strong responses.”

The disagreement has already spilled onto the battlefield. Hezbollah says it has launched rockets into northern Israel in response to Israeli strikes, triggering air raid sirens across the Galilee. The escalation underscores how quickly the truce could unravel.

U.S. President Donald Trump has added to the pressure with stark warnings ahead of the talks. He said American warships, aircraft, and troops will remain deployed around Iran until what he called a “real agreement” is fully enforced, warning that if the deal fails, fighting could resume “bigger and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.”

The statement reflects Washington’s dual approach of negotiation backed by sustained military pressure. Vice President JD Vance, who is expected to lead the US delegation, said Washington is “impatient” to reach a long-term agreement dismantling Iran’s nuclear program.

Delegations from both sides are now arriving in Pakistan’s capital for what could be a decisive diplomatic moment.

Pakistan will be represented by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, and National Security Adviser Lt. Gen. Asim Malik.

The U.S. side is expected to include J D Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and CENTCOM chief Admiral Brad Cooper.

Iran is sending a senior team led by Ghalibaf, Araghchi and Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht Ravanchi.

Yet the gaps remain deep.

At the center is Iran’s nuclear program. Washington is demanding strict curbs and the transfer of enriched uranium stockpiles. Tehran rejects this, insisting enrichment is a sovereign right. The White House has already dismissed Iran’s earlier 10-point proposal as “unacceptable,” underlining how far apart the sides remain.

Another flashpoint is the Strait of Hormuz. While the ceasefire was expected to restore shipping, movement remains limited. Only seven vessels have crossed the strait since the truce, far below the pre-war average of more than 130 ships a day. No oil or gas tankers have resumed transit, raising concerns about global energy supply and prices.

Tensions have also spread beyond Lebanon. A drone strike hit a pumping station along Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, a critical route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the vulnerability of regional energy infrastructure.

European leaders have voiced concern that continued Israeli operations could collapse the peace effort. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for extending the ceasefire to all fronts, including Lebanon, warning that without this, the truce cannot be credible.

British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper echoed that view, saying ongoing strikes risk destabilising the entire region.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has signaled that Tehran’s participation in the talks could be reconsidered if Israeli strikes continue, adding that Iran’s “hands remain on the trigger.”

The broader trajectory of the conflict suggests a shift toward a war of attrition. Recent weeks have seen increasing attacks on infrastructure, from refineries to transport networks, indicating efforts to weaken economic resilience as much as military capability.

For Washington, the ceasefire offers a chance to push for concessions while maintaining pressure. For Tehran, it provides space to regroup and recalibrate strategy. But neither side appears to see it as a final settlement.

Instead, the truce increasingly looks like a pause in a longer confrontation.

As diplomats gather in Islamabad, the central paradox remains unchanged. Both sides are negotiating, yet both continue to prepare for escalation.

With jets still flying over Lebanon, rockets crossing borders, and shipping lanes uncertain, the window for diplomacy is narrowing.

Whether the Islamabad talks can stabilise the region or simply delay the next round of conflict will depend on whether the United States and Iran can bridge their deepest divisions — or whether events on the ground will once again overtake diplomacy.