Mamdani leads at 44pc, Cuomo’s at 34pc in tightening New York mayoral race: survey

NEW YORK CITY (MNTV) — The race for New York City mayor has entered a decisive final stretch, with Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani successfully maintaining his lead at 44 percent and independent candidate and former governor Andrew Cuomo increasing his to 34 percent, according to a new Suffolk University Political Research Center poll.

The survey of 500 likely voters found Mamdani leading with 44 percent, followed by Cuomo at 34 percent and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa trailing with 11 percent.

The remaining four candidates, including sitting Mayor Eric Adams and independents Irene Estrada, Joseph Hernandez, and Jim Walden, collectively secured less than 3 percent, while 7 percent remain undecided.

Cuomo’s late surge has halved Mamdani’s advantage since September, when the Democratic Party and Working Families Party nominee held a 20-point lead.

Suffolk poll director David Paleologos said Sliwa’s conservative vote share could prove pivotal in determining the outcome. “When asked for their second choice, Sliwa’s voters preferred Cuomo over Mamdani by a margin of 36 percent to 2 percent,” Paleologos noted.

Affordability emerges as core issue

A majority of New Yorkers — 54 percent — described city life as “somewhat or very unaffordable,” highlighting the economic anxiety driving this election.

The poll revealed that homeowners (43 percent) and renters (48 percent) were nearly evenly split in representation, but their voting behavior diverged: Mamdani led strongly among renters, while Cuomo gained ground among homeowners and middle-income earners citing cost-of-living pressures.

Among those rating city conditions as “excellent” or “good” (53 percent combined), Cuomo performed competitively, drawing 37 percent of this segment compared to Mamdani’s 44 percent.

However, among respondents describing conditions as “poor” — 16 percent of voters — Mamdani’s support remained resilient, reflecting his appeal to lower-income and younger groups.

Ethnic and age divides

The poll revealed sharp demographic contrasts. Mamdani’s coalition remains strongest among younger voters, renters, and minorities — particularly Hispanic (55 percent) and Black (38 percent) voters — while Cuomo dominates among older, White, and middle-income voters.

Voters aged 18 to 34 favored Mamdani by a wide margin (75 percent), but the 65+ demographic leaned heavily toward Cuomo (41 percent).

Among White voters, Cuomo led with 41 percent compared to Mamdani’s 39 percent, while Mamdani held commanding advantages among Hispanics (55 percent) and Asians (49 percent).

Cuomo’s biggest turnaround came from the Hispanic electorate, where he gained over 30 points since September to pull even at 34 percent — an unprecedented shift that pollsters attribute to his renewed focus on safety, housing, and middle-class affordability.

Among independent voters, he now holds a 10-point lead, reversing an 18-point deficit in the previous survey.

Favorability and recognition

Despite the tightening race, Mamdani continues to maintain the highest name recognition and favorability among major candidates. Nearly 47 percent of voters expressed a favorable opinion of him, compared to 37 percent unfavorable. Only 2 percent of respondents said they had “never heard” of Mamdani, underscoring his broad visibility across boroughs.

Cuomo, meanwhile, benefited from a surge following his endorsement by Mayor Eric Adams, who now polls at just 2 percent as an independent. The endorsement came shortly before the Suffolk poll was fielded and likely contributed to Cuomo’s rise, particularly in Queens and Staten Island, where Adams’ base remains active.

Voting patterns reflect 2024 presidential divide

The 2024 presidential race appears to mirror the current political alignment in the city. Among respondents who voted for Democrat Kamala Harris last year — representing 61 percent of likely voters — Mamdani captured nearly two-thirds, while Cuomo drew roughly one-quarter.

In contrast, among Donald Trump’s 23 percent of supporters, Cuomo captured a strong majority, with Mamdani receiving minimal support.

Nonvoters from 2024, who make up 11 percent of the electorate, skewed slightly toward Mamdani, suggesting his campaign’s outreach to disengaged or first-time voters may be paying off.

Mamdani continues to dominate in Queens (48 percent), his political base, and Brooklyn (46 percent), while Cuomo is ahead in Manhattan (54 percent) and competitive in the Bronx, where both candidates hover around the mid-30s.

Sliwa remains strongest in Staten Island and parts of Queens, consolidating conservative voters dissatisfied with both major contenders.

Final outlook

With seven days remaining before Election Day on November 4, Mamdani urged his supporters to “go into the final week assuming we are five points behind,” echoing his campaign’s focus on mobilizing grassroots turnout.

“We have a movement of the masses,” he said during his latest rally, where record early voting turnout was reported across the city.

Analysts say the final outcome may hinge on voter mobilization among younger, working-class, and minority groups, who continue to back Mamdani, versus older, moderate, and property-owning voters, now consolidating behind Cuomo.

The Suffolk University poll, conducted in English and Spanish, carries a margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points.