ASEAN survey finds China overtaking US as preferred strategic partner in Southeast Asia
Support for China stronger in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore; US remains preferred in Philippines, Myanmar and Vietnam
HONG KONG (MNTV) – A majority of respondents in the latest ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute survey said Southeast Asia should choose China over the United States if forced to align with one superpower — a reversal from the previous year and a result analysts say reflects growing economic ties with Beijing and uncertainty generated by the Trump administration’s recent moves.
The survey found 52% of respondents chose China, compared to 48% for the U.S. — a shift from last year when 52.3% preferred Washington.
The poll surveyed 2,008 respondents across 11 Southeast Asian countries from the private sector, research institutions and policymaking circles, conducted between January 5 and February 20.
Support for China was stronger in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, while the U.S. remained the preferred choice in the Philippines, Myanmar and Vietnam.
Analysts speaking at an online panel said the shift appeared to reflect China’s closer economic integration with the region alongside the geopolitical and trade uncertainty triggered by Trump’s tariffs and other recent actions.
ISEAS director Ng Chee Khern cautioned that the narrow margin should not be read as a “wholesale strategic pivot” to Beijing. Former U.S. diplomat Scot Marciel said he was “actually surprised the numbers didn’t swing more given the tariffs and other things the Trump administration has done,” but stressed the findings should not be treated as a zero-sum contest.
“To the extent that the US takes actions that push away South-East Asians from working with us, the benefit does not necessarily accrue to China — oftentimes, they’re going to work more with each other, with Japan, Korea, India, Australia and Europe,” he said.
Wang Zichen of the Centre for China and Globalisation agreed, saying the result does not mean Southeast Asia has “chosen” China, but rather that “when the region is pushed into some sort of uncomfortable binary, China is no longer on the losing side.”
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