Iran not Venezuela, expert warns US

By Safeer Raza

TEHRAN, Iran (MNTV) — As Iran faces protests alongside escalating rhetoric from Washington, an Iranian studies expert has warned that any attempt by the United States to replicate its Venezuela-style approach toward Tehran would be strategically flawed and historically misinformed.

In an interview with MNTV, Syed Qandil Abbas, professor of International Relations at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, said Iran’s political resilience, societal structure, and historical experience render comparisons with Venezuela untenable.

In response to a question on whether the United States could apply the same method it used against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Abbas said Iran and Venezuela are fundamentally different political and civilizational entities.

He said Washington cannot simply extract Iran’s president or Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei from the country as it did with Maduro.

Abbas said that while U.S. military and economic pressure may have targeted Venezuela due to its socialist orientation and vast oil reserves, it failed to erase entrenched anti-American sentiment.

He warned that pursuing a similar trajectory in Iran would lead to identical results and stronger resistance fallout in the region and beyond.

His remarks come as protests and sporadic unrest have been reported in several Iranian cities, prompting sharp reactions from both Tehran and Washington.

Iranian officials have accused the United States of exploiting domestic grievances to interfere in the country’s internal affairs, while U.S. President Donald Trump has issued repeated statements expressing support for protesters and warning Tehran against the use of force.

Addressing the protests, Abbas said demonstrations are a normal feature of politically aware societies and should not be mischaracterized as an existential challenge to the Iranian state.

In response to a question about unrest on the streets, he said there are always two categories present in such situations: genuine protesters with social or economic demands and those engaging in violence or rioting.

He noted that this distinction has also been made by Ayatollah Khamenei, who has stated that protests occur in all nations but warned against foreign-backed disruption. Abbas argued that Western media often collapses this distinction, portraying routine dissent as systemic revolt.

On Monday, tens of thousands of Iranians rallied in central Tehran in a large demonstration organized by supporters of Ayatollah Khamenei, according to Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB.

The rally was held in response to the protests and featured slogans rejecting U.S. and Israeli interference, with state media describing it as a show of unity behind the Islamic Republic.

Abbas said such mobilization reflects Iran’s deeply political society, shaped by decades of revolutionary experience. He said Iran’s survival since the 1979 revolution would be unimaginable to outside observers unfamiliar with its internal dynamics, adding that sustained political awareness has kept Iranian society engaged rather than apathetic.

Turning to Washington’s broader strategy, Abbas said the United States has already exhausted most of its coercive tools, from sweeping economic sanctions to diplomatic isolation, without achieving its objectives. He said Iran has not been brought “to its knees,” despite sustained pressure.

In response to American statements hinting at possible military action, Abbas said any attempt to deploy ground forces would be disastrous. He said Iran’s geographic scale, population size and political culture make invasion impractical and warned that “boots on the ground” historically generate long-term hatred rather than compliance.

Abbas pointed to past assassinations of senior Iranian figures, including Muhammad Ali Raja’i and Mohammad Beheshti, saying such actions may have removed individuals but failed to weaken Iran’s ideological core. He said external actors have repeatedly underestimated the distinction between leadership removal and ideological defeat.

On recent reports suggesting instability at the top of Iran’s leadership, Abbas dismissed claims that Ayatollah Khamenei was preparing to leave the country, calling them fabricated narratives circulated by hostile media networks. He said such reporting reflects information warfare rather than ground realities.

Discussing regional security, Abbas referenced what he described as a recent 12-day conflict in which Iran faced pressure from two nuclear-armed states yet remained intact.

He said Iran used only a limited portion of its military capability while exposing vulnerabilities in Israeli defenses, challenging long-held assumptions about Israel’s invincible defense umbrella. He added that no foreign troops landed on Iranian territory during the conflict, underscoring Iran’s deterrence posture.

Abbas argued that in the long term, Washington is losing strategic legitimacy, not only Global South but also in the West. He said public opinion in Western societies increasingly diverges from state policies on foreign wars, while even U.S. allies show reluctance to support direct confrontation.

He described Trump’s public offers to “help” Iranian protesters as legally unbounded interference that could ultimately benefit Tehran by unifying Iranians against external pressure. According to Abbas, resistance to foreign intrusion remains a powerful mobilizing force within Iranian society.

Concluding the interview, Abbas urged the United Nations and major powers to abandon isolationist approaches and recognize Iran as a legitimate regional political actor. He called for structured political engagement, compromise, and mutual concessions, warning that continued coercion would only entrench conflict.

As protests continue and rhetoric hardens, Abbas’s assessment underscores a recurring lesson in U.S.-Iran relations: pressure may target leaders, but ideology and society remain far more difficult to dislodge.