Trump’s economic narrative faces growing resistance ahead of midterms
Rising living costs and deepening economic pessimism are testing Donald Trump's political support, including among rural Americans and traditionally conservative voters
WASHINGTON (MNTV) – U.S. President Donald Trump faces mounting political risk ahead of the November midterm elections as growing economic pessimism threatens to weaken Republican support, including among rural communities and traditionally conservative voters increasingly burdened by rising living costs.
Polling conducted by Harris for The Guardian indicates that 58% of Americans believe the economy is worsening, up 10 percentage points from September 2024, near the end of Joe Biden’s presidency.
Even among Republicans, economic pessimism has risen, with 38% saying conditions are deteriorating, compared with 29% a year earlier.
The figures challenge Trump’s efforts to portray the economy as thriving while shifting public attention toward immigration and cultural conflicts.
His trade tariffs, rising fuel and agricultural costs, immigration raids and efforts to lower meat prices through reduced import tariffs have created pressures for communities that traditionally support Republicans.
Rural Americans appear particularly dissatisfied, with 64% saying the economy is worsening, compared with 52% of urban residents. Among white Americans, another key Republican constituency, 61% expressed pessimism, up from 48% in September 2024.
These concerns reflect policies affecting household budgets, agricultural production and access to workers.
Farmers face higher diesel and fertilizer costs, while immigration enforcement has disrupted labor supplies in sectors dependent on migrant workers.
The challenge is compounded by deep partisan polarization, which increasingly shapes how Americans interpret economic conditions.
In the final months of Biden’s presidency, 65% of Republicans believed the economy was deteriorating; by early 2025, after Trump introduced sweeping tariffs, that share had fallen to 33%, despite little meaningful change in key indicators.
Democratic perceptions moved in the opposite direction. Political scientists suggest such polarization weakens electoral accountability by allowing politicians to retain support even when economic outcomes worsen.
Trump’s reliance on cultural grievances and attacks on immigrants may mobilize his core supporters, but dissatisfaction over the cost of living presents a more immediate challenge: families facing expensive groceries, fuel and housing cannot easily be persuaded that conditions are improving when daily experience suggests otherwise.
With the midterms approaching, partisan loyalty may shape perceptions, but it cannot indefinitely insulate a government from the consequences of its economic decisions.
If voters continue to associate the administration with declining affordability, the economy could become a decisive liability for Republicans.
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