Gorton and Denton: Labour’s Muslim vote is no longer guaranteed

MANCHESTER (MNTV) — For nearly a century, Gorton and Denton was the kind of seat Labour never had to think twice about. That era may be coming to an end.

A by-election on February 26th has turned this corner of Greater Manchester into one of the most closely watched political contests in Britain — with a Muslim electorate accounting for nearly a third of voters, and a growing sense that old loyalties are beginning to crack.

The vote was triggered by the departure of former MP Andrew Gwynne, who vacated the seat amid personal controversy. Labour has selected local councillor Angeliki Stogia as its candidate, though the process itself caused early friction after Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was blocked from standing by the party’s national executive.

At street level, the mood is layered. Economic anxiety is constant — this is a constituency that ranks among the most deprived in England and Wales, with some neighbourhoods recording average household incomes well below the national figure. 

But beneath the cost-of-living pressures runs something harder to quantify: a disillusionment with Labour that has been building quietly for years, and which the genocide in Gaza has brought sharply into the open.

Three-way fight for a fractured electorate

The Green Party, reinvigorated nationally under new leader Zack Polanski, has moved aggressively into the constituency. Its candidate, local plumber Hannah Spencer, has been campaigning in communities where Labour’s standing among Muslim voters has visibly weakened. The party has deployed Urdu and Punjabi-speaking volunteers in an effort to reach residents directly.

Adding to the pressure on Labour, the Workers Party of Britain — which took a council seat here at the last general election and won around ten percent of the vote — has chosen not to contest the by-election, throwing its support behind the Greens instead and further consolidating the left-of-Labour alternative.

Labour is fighting back with significant resources. High-profile Muslim figures including London Mayor Sadiq Khan and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made campaign appearances, and activists have been travelling in from across the country. 

The party’s central argument is that only Labour can keep Reform out of the seat — a message it hopes will cut through in a constituency where the right-wing party is also mounting a serious challenge.

Community holding politicians to account

What gives this by-election its particular weight is its timing. Falling during Ramadan, when community networks are at their most active and mosques become informal gathering places, the election arrives at a moment of heightened civic conversation among Muslim voters.

Local religious leaders have remained neutral but vocal — encouraging participation while making clear that commitments made on the doorstep will be remembered. Concerns about Islamophobia, NHS waiting times, housing and the quality of local schools have all featured heavily in community discussions, alongside the ongoing situation in Gaza, which continues to shape how many Muslim voters assess the major parties.

For some, loyalty to Labour remains firm — rooted in long relationships and a belief that, whatever its failings, the party still offers the most practical path to change. 

For others, that calculation has shifted. The Greens represent something new, though questions remain about whether a party with limited local infrastructure can convert visible enthusiasm into actual votes when it counts.

The result will be read nationally as a signal — about the state of Labour’s relationship with Muslim Britain, about Reform’s reach into urban seats, and about whether the Greens are building something durable or riding a wave of protest feeling that may yet recede.