El-Sayed leads Rogers in new Michigan Senate poll, but race stays tight
Survey gives Democrat a seven-point edge, though other polls put his Republican rival ahead — signs of genuine tossup
DETROIT (MNTV) — Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a seven-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers in a new Michigan Senate poll, an early boost in one of 2026’s most closely watched races — though other surveys suggest the contest remains a tossup.
The Susquehanna Polling & Research survey of 800 likely voters, conducted Aug. 11-17, puts El-Sayed at 46 percent and Rogers at 39, with 9 percent undecided and a margin of error of 3.46 points.
His main strength is consolidating Democrats after the Aug. 4 primary: he leads 91-0 among self-identified Democrats and 46-24 among independents, easing concerns he might struggle with moderates who backed Haley Stevens.
He also leads 62-24 in the Detroit area and holds a 47-38 edge among voters who rank inflation and the economy as their top issue.
The result should be read with caution, however.
A Fox News poll from early August put Rogers ahead 51-47, and the RealClearPolitics polling average shows El-Sayed leading by less than a point — meaning this survey may sit at the favorable end of the range rather than reflecting a settled lead.
Michigan, which Trump narrowly carried in 2024, is an open seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters.
Rogers, a former congressman endorsed by Trump, dominates his own base, leading 90-2 among Republicans, and is working to expand among independents wary of El-Sayed’s progressive record.
The race, analysts say, is likely to turn on turnout, partisan loyalty, and attitudes toward Trump rather than enthusiasm for either nominee.
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