Bangladesh warned of vanishing winter, extreme heat and rising seas
Joint Bangladesh–Norway research projects temperature rise up to 4.5°C, severe heatwaves and major coastal submergence by 2100
DHAKA, Bangladesh (MNTV) — Bangladesh may face some of the sharpest climate shifts in South Asia this century, with a new scientific assessment warning that average temperatures could rise by as much as 4.5°C by 2100 if global emissions remain high.
The study projects the near-disappearance of winter, longer and more dangerous heatwaves, and large-scale coastal submergence.
The findings were released in a joint report prepared by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, with technical support from Save the Children.
According to The Daily Star, which reported on the launch, the study examines multiple climate scenarios for mid-century (2041–2070) and late-century (2071–2100).
Lead author Md Bazlur Rashid said the projections allow Bangladesh to understand how different emissions pathways may reshape the country.
He noted that the report analyzes five climate scenarios and divides the remaining decades of the century into two modelling periods to show how temperatures, rainfall, and sea-level rise may intensify over time.
Norwegian climatologist Hans Olav Hygen, who delivered the keynote presentation, said the research gives Bangladesh time to strengthen preparedness. He noted that identifying risks early means “these threats do not have to become unmanageable.”
The study warns that Bangladesh will experience far more severe heatwaves, especially in western districts, where pre-monsoon heat could last up to 20 days by the 2070s.
By the end of the century, nearly 70 of the 90 pre-monsoon days may reach heatwave conditions. Dhaka is projected to face at least two major heatwaves annually — one before the monsoon and one after.
Winter conditions are expected to shrink drastically. In the northeast, mild cold spells may last only a day or two, while southern regions may lose all winter characteristics within decades.
Rainfall will also intensify. Monsoon precipitation could increase by 118mm by 2070, and by around 15 percent — equivalent to roughly 255mm — by 2100, raising the risk of urban flooding and swollen rivers.
Sea-level rise poses one of the gravest threats. Coastal waters around Bangladesh are rising 3.8 to 5.8 millimeters a year, more than double the global average.
As a result, 12–18 percent of the country’s coastal land could be permanently submerged by 2100, potentially displacing around 900,000 people by 2050. The Sundarbans could lose up to 918 square kilometers, or about 23 percent of its area.
Scientists involved in the report said Bangladesh’s long experience in climate adaptation offers a foundation for preparing for the unprecedented challenges ahead.
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