Bangladesh elections: Can Islamic parties make an impact?

By Mushfiq Ahmed 

KARACHI, Pakistan (MNTV) — Bangladesh heads into a pivotal national election on Feb. 12, one that analysts describe less as a conventional contest and more as a referendum on power after Sheikh Hasina Wajid’s exit, with longstanding political equations undergoing rapid change.

With the Awami League effectively out of the race following Hasina’s departure from the country, the election has opened political space for rivals — particularly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami — to compete directly for influence, visibility and legitimacy.

Senior journalist Shahnawaz Farooqi says Sheikh Hasina’s removal has fundamentally altered the political balance, unintentionally strengthening Islamic forces that were previously marginalized.

“The exit of Sheikh Hasina has not only weakened the Awami League but has also given unprecedented visibility and acceptance to Jamaat-e-Islami,” Farooqi said. “This election has created an opening that did not exist before.”

Most observers agree that BNP enters the election with structural advantages, public momentum and a clearer national footprint. Political analyst Moonis Ahmer says BNP has strategically worked to attract voters who would otherwise have supported Awami League.

“The elections will effectively function as a referendum,” Ahmer said. “BNP certainly has chances, but it will not achieve a complete sweep.”

According to Ahmer, while BNP has benefited from the political vacuum, its position is weakened by the presence of Islamic parties and the National Citizens Party, which may not win outright but could push the country toward a coalition government.

Former Pakistan diplomat Sanaullah offers a stronger forecast for BNP, estimating that its leader Tariq-ur-Rehman could secure more than 60% of the vote, driven in part by youth support and public enthusiasm. 

“He is not an ideological hardliner,” Sanaullah noted. “That makes him acceptable to a broader base.”

Views diverge sharply on the prospects of Islamic parties, particularly Jamaat-e-Islami, which has seen a resurgence in visibility following years of political marginalization.

Shahid Hashmi, Director of Karachi-based Islamic Research Academy, argues that student groups and street movements wield pressure and disruption but not decisive electoral power. “Elections are driven by large movements, public momentum and political drama,” he added.

Farooqi, however, believes Jamaat’s current standing is unusually strong due to political sympathy and organizational mobilization.

“Surveys indicate Jamaat and BNP are running nearly neck to neck, with only a one to one-and-a-half percent difference,” he said. “That is a remarkable shift by Bangladesh’s standards.”

Youth, sympathy and the Jamaat narrative

A key factor reshaping the contest is the role of youth forces, many of whom have aligned themselves with Jamaat-e-Islami under a shared political banner. Jamaat’s long history of being persecuted has also generated public sympathy, strengthening a narrative that political power should reward sacrifice.

“There is a strong sentiment that votes should go to those who have paid the highest price,” Farooqi said. “Jamaat has benefited enormously from this perception.”

Sanaullah agrees that youth mobilization has strengthened Jamaat’s profile, even if it does not guarantee power. “Jamaat hoped younger leaders and social networks would strengthen its position,” he said. “While that did not materialize fully, it has still emerged as a serious force.”

However, analysts caution that Bangladesh’s weak tradition of stable freedom of expression and unpredictable voter behavior on election day make outcomes difficult to forecast.

Students and new parties fall short

Not all youth-driven political formations have benefited equally. The National Citizens Party, once seen as a rising force, has struggled with internal disputes, corruption allegations and organizational failures.

“Youth politics was meant to be their strength,” Ahmer said. “But they were unable to consolidate it effectively.”

As a result, many younger voters have shifted toward BNP, viewing it as the most viable route to power.

The Bangladeshi army remains a central — if opaque — actor in the political equation. Analysts agree it was instrumental in facilitating Sheikh Hasina’s exit and providing her safe passage, and continues to wield decisive influence behind the scenes.

“Without its (military’s) role, Sheikh Hasina’s exit would not have been possible,” Farooqi said. 

Hashmi notes that the army is susceptible to international pressure. “Like every army in the world, it is not free from external influence,” he said.

Both Hashmi and Sanaullah believe any eventual election outcome will be closely watched by the United States and India, with India in particular preparing for the possibility of a stronger Islamic parties’ presence in Dhaka.

Ahmer adds that while the army is expected to remain formally neutral, it does not favor an Islamic electoral victory and finds BNP more acceptable.

Transitional figures such as Muhammad Yunus, backed by students and the military, reflect the army’s continued role in shaping the political process.

As Bangladesh approaches polling day, the election represents a rare political opening — particularly for Jamaat-e-Islami — but also carries the risk of renewed confrontation if results are disputed.

“If the election is fair and the losing side accepts the outcome,” Farooqi said, “Bangladesh could enter a new era.”