Can Islamabad and Ankara avert a global inferno?
As the US–Israel war on Iran enters a perilous phase, Pakistan and Türkiye are emerging as important diplomatic bridges for a region facing rising instability
By Shabana Ayaz
The Middle East is no longer merely “dangerously close” to a wider conflict — it is increasingly moving toward one. Following the unprecedented joint U.S.–Israeli air strikes on Iranian strategic facilities and leadership infrastructure, the region has entered a period of heightened uncertainty.
In the days since the strikes, missile exchanges and escalating rhetoric have dominated global headlines. Yet behind the military developments, another important story is unfolding in the diplomatic corridors of Islamabad and Ankara.
For Pakistan and Türkiye, the crisis is not only a distant geopolitical conflict. It carries serious implications for regional stability, energy security, and their own national interests.
Many policymakers in both countries believe that prolonged escalation or a sudden collapse of governance structures in Iran could create unpredictable consequences across the Middle East and South Asia.
Spectre of power vacuum
Several regional analysts have warned that any prolonged destabilization of Iran could lead to security vacuums along sensitive border regions.
According to international media reports and regional security assessments, policymakers in Ankara and Islamabad are particularly concerned about the possibility that instability in Iran could create opportunities for militant networks operating near border areas.
For Türkiye, the issue is closely linked to the long-standing “Kurdish question.” Ankara has been engaged in a decades-long struggle against the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), which Türkiye officially designates as a banned terrorist organization. At a time when the PKK has laid down arms in Turkiye, any Kurdish activity in Iran with U.S. backing can once again encourage the group of militants associated with it to continue fighting.
Turkish officials have repeatedly expressed concern that instability in neighboring countries can sometimes create environments where extremist groups attempt to expand their influence.
Reports indicate that certain Kurdish political and militant networks in the region have increased political activity since early 2026. Turkish authorities, however, continue to emphasize that any scenario leading to civil conflict or state fragmentation in Iran would have serious consequences for regional security.
Speaking on March 7, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned that escalating tensions could lead to wider instability.
“We are against all scenarios that could lead to civil war or the collapse of state structures in Iran,” he said, emphasizing that diplomacy must remain the primary path forward.
Security concerns for Pakistan
Pakistan faces its own security concerns along its southwestern frontier. The Iran-Pakistan border stretches nearly 900 kilometers, passing through remote and often difficult terrain.
Over the years, the region has witnessed activity by militant and separatist groups. Among them is the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), which Pakistan designates as a banned terrorist organization.
Similarly, Jaish al-Adl — also designated as a militant group by both Iran and Pakistan — has claimed responsibility for attacks against Iranian security forces in the border province of Sistan-Baluchestan.
Security analysts note that any serious instability in Iran could potentially complicate border management for neighboring states. Islamabad, therefore, closely monitors developments across the border while emphasizing regional stability and diplomatic solutions.
The issue is also connected to major economic projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which includes the strategic port of Gwadar. Ensuring long-term stability in the surrounding region remains an important priority for Pakistan.
Türkiye: Preventive diplomatic role
Türkiye has increasingly positioned itself as a diplomatic actor seeking to prevent further escalation.
Although Türkiye is a member of NATO, Ankara has consistently emphasized the importance of diplomacy and dialogue in addressing regional conflicts.
According to Turkish officials and international media coverage, Ankara has been engaged in active diplomatic outreach during the early weeks of the crisis. Turkish diplomats have reportedly held discussions with several international actors, encouraging restraint and political dialogue.
Turkish policymakers are particularly focused on three priorities:
- Preventing regional instability that could spread across borders
- Protecting energy routes and economic interests
- Supporting diplomatic channels that could lead to negotiations
Istanbul has previously hosted diplomatic talks on major regional issues, and analysts believe Türkiye could again play a role if negotiations become possible.
Pakistan’s delicate strategic balance
Pakistan’s diplomatic position is equally complex. Islamabad has historically maintained cordial relations with Iran while preserving strategic partnerships with Gulf countries and maintaining economic ties with global markets.
Pakistan and Türkiye have historically maintained close strategic and diplomatic ties, often coordinating positions on regional crises and promoting dialogue in the Muslim world. This longstanding partnership continues to influence how both countries approach the current regional crisis.
In September 2025, Pakistan signed a strategic defense cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia, adding another dimension to its regional diplomacy.
Speaking in the Senate on March 3, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar emphasized that diplomatic engagement had been underway through Omani mediation efforts before the recent escalation.
Pakistan has consistently stressed the importance of dialogue and regional cooperation in addressing the crisis.
“Through dialogue, a path of understanding can emerge,” Dar told lawmakers while reiterating Pakistan’s commitment to de-escalation.
Energy markets and global economic risks
Beyond security considerations, economic realities are also driving international concern.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, with roughly 20 percent of global oil supplies passing through the narrow maritime corridor.
Recent tensions have already pushed oil prices significantly higher in international markets, according to global economic reports.
For energy-importing countries like Pakistan and Türkiye, prolonged instability in the Gulf region could have serious economic consequences.
Both countries are therefore actively engaging in diplomatic discussions through multilateral forums such as the United Nations and other regional platforms.
Moment for diplomacy
Despite the escalating rhetoric and military developments, many regional observers believe the crisis has not yet crossed the point of no return.
Pakistan and Türkiye, both influential regional actors, continue to emphasize dialogue, diplomacy, and conflict de-escalation.
In a region historically shaped by geopolitical rivalries, their coordinated diplomatic approach highlights the importance of regional cooperation in preventing further escalation.
At a time when tensions remain dangerously high, the efforts of Islamabad and Ankara underscore a simple but vital principle: sustainable stability in the Middle East can only emerge through diplomacy rather than confrontation.
Shabana Ayaz is a Pakistani journalist based in Ankara, Türkiye
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