Qatar warns Gulf stability can no longer be taken for granted amid US-Iran conflict

ABU DHABI (MNTV) – Qatar has warned that stability in the Gulf can no longer be treated as a given, as the US-Iran conflict continues to disrupt shipping, energy markets and security across the region.

Speaking Monday at the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al Ansari said recent events had overturned the long-standing image of the Gulf as an “oasis of stability.”

“We cannot take for granted the fact that this region will be the oasis of stability. That is no longer the reality,” he said.

Al Ansari warned that repeated military confrontations and disruptions to major trade routes risk becoming normalized unless Gulf states take a more coordinated approach to regional security.

His comments come as fighting between the US and Iran has sharply reduced commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed oil prices close to six-week highs.

Only about 10 commodity vessels a day have crossed the strait on average over the past 10 days, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. Before the conflict, roughly 125 commercial vessels passed through the waterway each day.

Economic ties needed for lasting stability

Al Ansari said diplomatic mediation could help halt fighting but would not address the underlying causes of regional instability.

“Any solution, any deal that is signed, any mediation that will take place, nothing will happen beyond freezing the conflict unless there is real economic interdependency in the region,” he said.

He argued that stronger economic ties could create a deterrent against future conflict by ensuring that any government attempting to damage a neighbor’s economy would also inflict costs on itself.

Al Ansari said Gulf economies remain too isolated from one another, including among states that are close political and strategic partners.

He called for deeper economic integration both within the Gulf and across the wider Middle East.

Qatar has been among the regional states trying to mediate between Washington and Tehran as fighting has repeatedly threatened Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping routes.

‘Taboo’ on international waterways broken

Al Ansari expressed particular alarm over the Strait of Hormuz, warning that the conflict had established a dangerous precedent for using major international waterways as instruments of pressure.

The strait remained open even during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, he noted.

Its current disruption, he said, had therefore broken what he described as a longstanding “taboo.”

“We might see it at a later stage in other straits around the world, in other waterways around the world, because the taboo has been broken,” Al Ansari said.

He pointed to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as another example of a major maritime chokepoint affected by conflict.

The warning comes after a series of attacks on tankers and renewed US-Iran military exchanges around Hormuz. Two tankers carrying Saudi crude were struck near the strait on Sept. 1, further raising concerns about the security of global energy supplies.

Oil prices climbed again Monday as renewed attacks fueled fears of a larger supply shock, with Brent crude trading above $97 a barrel.

Gulf security model under strain

The conflict has also intensified debate within Gulf states over their reliance on the United States and other outside powers for security.

Al Ansari has argued that Gulf governments need greater security self-sufficiency even while maintaining their strategic partnerships with Washington.

His remarks echoed comments at the same Abu Dhabi forum by UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash, who said the region needed a more coordinated approach to security and could not allow trade and energy exports to remain vulnerable to regional confrontation.

The debate is particularly significant because several Gulf states host major US military facilities while also maintaining extensive economic and diplomatic ties with Iran.

Qatar hosts Al Udeid Air Base, one of the largest US military facilities in the region, while also serving as a mediator in efforts to end the conflict.

Al Ansari said Gulf states had nevertheless demonstrated considerable resilience during the crisis.

He claimed that more than 90% of attacks against Gulf states had been intercepted and that governments had managed to prevent major disruptions to domestic supply chains.

He also said Gulf governments had avoided drawing on strategic reserves while continuing efforts to supply international markets with energy and other commodities.

Warning against a ‘new normal’

Al Ansari said one of the greatest risks was that the current level of instability would gradually come to be seen as normal.

The disruption of Hormuz, he argued, should therefore not be viewed simply as an energy or shipping problem but as a threat to the wider international economic and security system.

The latest escalation has included renewed US strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian attacks against US-linked assets and Gulf states, ending a month-long lull in major military action.

Al Ansari urged Gulf governments to coordinate their response more closely and strengthen their collective international messaging.

The region, he said, needed to “speak with one voice.”

The third Hili Forum is being held in Abu Dhabi under the theme “Gulf at Crossroads: Conflict, Consequences and Course Correction.”

The gathering is organized by the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research and the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy.