Fragile dawn over Gaza: Experts, officials, citizens weigh Trump’s ceasefire deal

By Iftikhar Gilani

Muslim Network TV Analysis

When news of the truce broke in Palestinian besieged territory of Gaza Strip, some residents allowed themselves a rare moment of hope.

“Once we heard the news about the truce, we felt happy,” said Ibrahim Shurrab from Khan Younis, speaking from a tent in an area overwhelmed by displacement.

“We ask Allah for the happiness to continue for us … for us to return to our homes despite the pain and suffering.”

Still, many are reluctant to see this as anything but temporary. After repeated ceasefires shattered under continued violence, the population is wary.

Those fears were borne out even overnight: Israeli airstrikes were still reported in Gaza City, though at a reduced pace, and explosions echoed in the north. The Civil Defence reported “intense air strikes” in some areas hours after the ceasefire was announced.

What first phase demands

The roadmap, as revealed to and confirmed by regional media and diplomatic sources, operates on a tight schedule:

• Thursday: The Israeli government approves the ceasefire; troop withdrawal maps and prisoner lists are published.
• Friday–Saturday: Troop pullback begins, while Palestinian factions prepare handover of captives and remains.
• Sunday: President Trump is expected to visit the region. The war’s official end is declared.
• Monday: A large-scale prisoner exchange is supervised by Türkiye, Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S. Gaza’s crossings reopen, with a starting volume of 400 aid trucks per day.

Under the deal, Hamas must release as many as 48 Israeli prisoners (20 believed alive), and Israel will free roughly 2,000 Palestinian detainees, including 250 serving life sentences.

In return, Israeli forces will pull back to agreed lines and allow humanitarian relief to surge into Gaza.

Aid is critical: for months, Gaza’s crossings have been sealed, plunging the territory deeper into famine.

The plan calls for immediate reactivation of supply lines, restoration of power, water, sanitation, and health services.

Cautious optimism, hard bargains

President Trump used Truth Social to declare the agreement a landmark:

“This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon … Israel will withdraw their Troops … toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace.”

He later thanked mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Türkiye for bringing it “about.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced Ankara’s intention to join a monitoring “task force” on the ground:

“We will hopefully join the task force that will monitor the implementation of the agreement on the ground.”
He also emphasized Türkiye’s role in reconstruction and humanitarian efforts.

Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi confirmed the ceasefire, framing it as the fulfillment of Trump’s peace plan after “two years of suffering.”

The United Nations, via Secretary-General António Guterres, welcomed the agreement as a potential path toward Palestinian self-determination and a two-state solution, while urging parties to exploit the window for political progress.

Russia, too, gave a cautious welcome. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the deal a “step forward,” while Foreign Minister Lavrov praised it as the best available path—but warned it leaves key questions unresolved.

Analysts and policy experts are watching closely. Some are hopeful this moment can shift dynamics; others see familiar pitfalls.

• Jon Allen, former Canadian ambassador to Israel, put it bluntly: “Anything that stops the war is a net benefit, no matter who’s involved.”
• From the Atlantic Council’s “Experts React” series, analyst Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib warned the deal might “freeze the conflict with no political horizon” rather than resolve it meaningfully.

Some experts remain cautious about the path ahead, especially over Hamas’s disarmament, Gaza governance, and Israel’s true commitment to withdrawal. The plan’s second phase hinges on delicate trust and sustained diplomatic pressure.

Palestinians: longing, grief, and distrust

For ordinary Palestinians in Gaza, the ceasefire resonates differently across fractured lives.

Families of the displaced still live in tents and makeshift shelters, mourning lost relatives, homes destroyed, and futures upended. Many see the deal as a lifeline, albeit a tenuous one.

Diana Buttu, former Palestinian negotiator, responded with both hope and caution in a recent essay:

“People are tired, hungry, and traumatized … they doubt that Israel can be compelled to stop.”
She emphasized that a lasting peace requires justice, accountability, and mechanisms to prevent evasion or delay.

Meanwhile, Hamas officially described the agreement as a commitment to end war, facilitate occupation withdrawal, allow aid, and conduct a prisoner exchange. In a statement, it appealed to Trump and mediators to enforce full compliance by Israel.

Still, many Palestinians are watching the deal’s implementation with suspicion. The pattern of broken ceasefires, delays, and unmet promises looms large in their memories.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formally backed the deal, but faces opposition from powerful far-right voices in his coalition, including Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who vehemently oppose any scenario involving Hamas, even in a diminished role.

High stakes of phase two and beyond

If the first phase proceeds as planned, the second phase will tackle more difficult terrain: full Israeli withdrawal, permanent ceasefire, disarmament of Hamas, and the creation of a new governing body in Gaza without Hamas. Reconstruction and governance will be deeply contested.

Trump’s plan calls for a “technocratic, apolitical” committee to administer Gaza, backed by a U.S.-led “Board of Peace”—with possible roles for figures like Tony Blair. Hamas would be removed from governance but could decommission arms and relocate if requested.

Arab states supporting the plan insist that it must eventually lead to Palestinian sovereignty. But Netanyahu and Trump have both so far resisted recognizing a Palestinian state in the near term.

Every element is vulnerable: if Israel delays withdrawals, or if aid fails to arrive, or if Hamas resists demilitarization, the deal could collapse. If the first phase fails, mistrust will deepen, and those who never believed the deal would last will see their skepticism confirmed.

In Gaza, amid the debris of bombed-out neighborhoods, lives hang in balance between war and fragile peace. The ceasefire, if upheld, could let people breathe again, begin reconstruction, reunite families, and open a political track forward.

But as analysts warn, this is not a guarantee. The deal rests on a precarious intersection of diplomacy, power dynamics, and accountability.

For now, Qatar, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt are being credited with delivering guarantees and leverage. Many Palestinians hope their influence will force enforcement in phase two, but few expect the truce to hold on its own.

As one Palestinian resident in Gaza put it, “We might have silence tonight—but the war isn’t over until every bomb is lifted, every prisoner freed, and Gaza rebuilt with dignity.”

If the first phase works, history may remember this as a turning point. If it fails, it may reinforce the cycle of conflict that has brought so much suffering. The world watches—and in Gaza, people pray.