Scientist warns Amazon nearing point of no return

BELEM, Brazil (MNTV) – As the Amazonian city of Belem prepares to host the 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), scientists are sounding the alarm that the world’s largest tropical rainforest is approaching an irreversible tipping point.

The Amazon, vital to regulating global climate and sustaining biodiversity, is under mounting pressure from deforestation, global warming, and recurring droughts. Experts warn that these combined stresses are transforming parts of the rainforest into drier ecosystems.

“This is already happening in the southern Amazon Basin,” said Jhan-Carlo Espinoza, a Franco-Peruvian researcher at France’s Institute of Research for Development (IRD).

Speaking to Vatican News, he noted that regions like Bolivia’s Amazon are enduring “increasingly severe and prolonged droughts,” now resembling Brazil’s savanna-like Cerrado. Both 2023 and 2024 saw record-breaking dry seasons.

In contrast, northern areas of the basin are facing an intensified hydrological cycle, with extreme floods and widespread inundations. Although scientists cannot pinpoint when the Amazon might reach its “point of no return,” they warn that critical ecological thresholds are being tested.

“Between 17 and 20 percent of the Amazon forest has already been cleared—an area roughly the size of France and Germany combined,” Espinoza said. Another 17 percent, he added, has been degraded by human activity.

Rising global temperatures over the past two decades have compounded these effects, weakening the forest’s ability to store carbon and disrupting rainfall patterns. Roughly half of Amazon rainfall, Espinoza explained, comes from water recycled by trees through evapotranspiration.

If current trends continue, the impacts could threaten water resources and food security in countries such as Bolivia and Peru.

Set for November 10–21, COP30 will focus on translating climate pledges into concrete measures and increasing financial aid for vulnerable nations, as global tensions and trade disputes test the world’s ability to act collectively against the climate crisis.