US Holocaust Museum warns India faces high risk of mass violence

NEW DELHI, India (MNTV) — A new assessment by the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum has warned that India faces a high risk of large-scale violence against civilians in the near future, with Muslims likely to be among the most vulnerable communities.

The warning is contained in the museum’s Early Warning Project, released in December 2025, which evaluates the risk of mass killing across 168 countries worldwide. India was ranked fourth on the global risk index, behind Myanmar, Chad and Sudan.

According to the report, there is a 75% likelihood that India could experience deliberate, large-scale violence against civilians before the end of 2026. Researchers define mass killing as the intentional killing of at least 1,000 unarmed civilians within a year, targeted on the basis of identity such as religion, ethnicity or political affiliation.

While countries like Myanmar and Sudan are already experiencing open armed conflict, the report identifies India as an emerging danger zone — a country not yet at the stage of mass killing, but where multiple warning indicators are present.

The assessment comes amid mounting concern over violence and discrimination against religious minorities, particularly Muslims, across several Indian states.

Human rights organizations have documented a rise in mob lynchings, hate speech, attacks during religious processions, and the destruction of Muslim homes and places of worship in recent years, often accompanied by weak accountability.

Researchers behind the Early Warning Project, working in collaboration with experts from Dartmouth College, analyzed decades of global data to identify patterns that typically precede episodes of mass violence. They then compared those patterns with current political, social and economic conditions.

The model evaluates more than 30 variables, including population pressures, economic stress, levels of political freedom, prevalence of hate speech, activity by armed groups, and broader social polarization. The central question, researchers say, is which countries today most resemble those that experienced mass killings one or two years before violence erupted.

India’s high placement on the list, the report stresses, should be treated as a serious warning rather than a distant possibility. The researchers emphasize that the model is not a prediction of inevitability, but an alert based on historically observable risk factors.

Although the report does not single out specific communities by name, analysts note that Indian Muslims face heightened risk due to repeated targeting in public discourse and violence. From lynchings linked to food practices to coordinated hate campaigns and communal attacks, Muslims have increasingly been portrayed as internal enemies, contributing to fear, social isolation and insecurity.

The authors caution that their findings may understate current risks, as the data used in the model is publicly available only up to 2024, meaning more recent incidents are not fully reflected. They also acknowledge that situations in countries where access for independent observers is restricted may be incompletely captured.

Despite these limitations, the museum underscores that early warnings exist precisely to allow preventive action. The report urges governments, international bodies and civil society organizations to closely monitor countries ranked in the top 30 and to take seriously patterns of organized violence against civilians.

Researchers also highlight the importance of strengthening institutions that historically act as barriers against mass violence, including independent media, courts, community networks and human rights organizations.

The report concludes by reminding readers that mass atrocities are rarely sudden. Drawing on lessons from the Holocaust, it argues that early warning signs are often visible well before violence escalates — and that ignoring them carries catastrophic human costs.