Tajikistan’s cotton collapse reveals deep crisis in agriculture amid climate change

DUSHANBE, Tajikistan (MNTV) — Tajikistan’s once-thriving cotton sector has shrunk by more than half over the past three decades, exposing deeper systemic failures in the country’s agricultural sector. The decline—56% since 1991—is now compounded by climate change, rising food prices, and a lack of investment in modern technology.

According to the Times of Central Asia, agriculture remains central to Tajikistan’s economy and food security. Nearly 60% of the population is engaged in agricultural work, most of them in rural areas. The sector contributes around 25% of GDP and national exports, and generates over a third of tax revenues. Yet despite this importance, agricultural output growth has stalled, while food costs continue to rise.

Extreme weather events are reshaping farming across the country. Warm spells in late winter trigger premature blooming in fruit trees, only for cold snaps in spring to destroy the crops.

“For more than ten years now, many horticulture businesses have suffered consistent losses,” said agricultural specialist Matlub Rakhmonov. He advocates for high-altitude orchard farming using traditional trees that have adapted to seasonal shifts—but such innovation requires capital that many farmers lack.

The challenges go beyond temperature swings. A 2024 report by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research warns that as much as 70% of Tajikistan’s arable land relies on irrigation, making it vulnerable to glacier melt and fluctuating river flows. With hotter days and extreme weather expected to rise, water-intensive crops like cotton may no longer be viable.

Meanwhile, Tajikistan’s population continues to grow at 2.7% annually, adding further strain to its food system. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that 60% of the population already suffers from food insecurity.

Experts point to three core weaknesses: climate vulnerability, outdated farming practices, and chronic underinvestment. Farmers lack access to credit, insurance, and modern tools. Much of the country’s machinery is obsolete, and agricultural training remains limited.

To survive, Tajikistan must invest in climate-resilient crop varieties, upgrade irrigation systems, and provide farmers with access to climate data and risk-sharing tools. Countries like those in the EU already offer direct income support to their farmers—Tajikistan has yet to follow suit.

Without urgent reforms and state-backed support, Tajikistan risks not only losing its agricultural base but also its historical identity as a cotton powerhouse in Central Asia.