Late to the table, Japan moves to secure a stake in Central Asia’s resource future
Tokyo’s first leaders-level summit with the five Central Asian states marks a belated but calculated attempt to secure a foothold in the region
By Akhtar Pathan
KARACHI, Pakistan (MNTV) — Over the past decade, Africa and Central Asia have emerged as the new frontiers of global competition, driven by Africa’s vast mineral wealth and Central Asia’s growing role as a future energy and water-power hub.
From Washington and Beijing to Brussels and Moscow, major and middle powers alike have rushed to host summits and court regional leaders, seeking access to resources and strategic corridors.
Against this backdrop, Japan’s first leaders-level summit with the five Central Asian states marks a belated but calculated attempt by Tokyo to secure a foothold in a region that is rapidly reshaping global supply chains and geopolitical alignments.
The five Central Asian countries, which increasingly act as a bloc led by Kazakhstan, have been courted in recent months by Chinese President Xi Jinping and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Washington followed with outreach aimed at developing alternative supply chains for rare earths and reducing dependence on China, the world’s dominant supplier.
That push culminated in a Nov. 6 C5+1 summit hosted by the United States, triggering swift responses from Moscow and Tokyo. Russia moved first, organizing state visits and a regional summit, while Japan revived its 2004 dialogue with Central Asia and elevated it to a heads-of-state format.
Russia invited Kazakhstan’s president to a state visit and engaged the remaining countries at a Collective Security Treaty Organization summit in Bishkek on Nov. 27, 2025. President Vladimir Putin arrived in Kyrgyzstan ahead of the meeting and used the visit to consult regional leaders.
Japan followed with a Dec. 19–20 summit, where Tokyo and the five Central Asian states agreed to deepen political, economic and sectoral cooperation, unveiling a $19 billion business target over five years as Japan seeks a stronger foothold in the resource-rich region.
Meeting in Tokyo for the first time at the leaders’ level, the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan joined Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for the inaugural Central Asia–Japan summit, marking a new phase in a dialogue launched more than two decades ago.
In a joint Tokyo Declaration, the leaders identified transportation connectivity, decarbonization and people-to-people exchanges as priority areas, citing mounting regional and global challenges.
Takaichi described Central Asia as a region of growing geopolitical and economic importance, pointing to its location between Europe and Asia, its energy and mineral wealth, and its expanding population and markets.
She announced the Central Asia Plus Japan Action and Development (CA+JAD) Tokyo Initiative, aimed at supporting industrial development and economic diversification in the region while strengthening mutually beneficial ties with Japan.
Japan targets to invest $19bn in region over five years
The initiative focuses on green and resilient growth, connectivity and human resource development, with a target of 3 trillion yen ($19 billion) in business projects over five years.
Japan pledged cooperation on energy transition, climate action, disaster risk reduction and the strengthening of critical mineral supply chains. Tokyo also confirmed support for developing the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, or Middle Corridor, linking Central Asia to Europe, and announced a Japan–Central Asia artificial intelligence cooperation partnership.
Human resource initiatives will include scholarships, health and medical cooperation and professional training programs. Japan also said it would convene a Central Asia–Japan justice ministers’ meeting, adding a new institutional layer to the framework.
The leaders agreed that the next Central Asia–Japan summit will be held in Kazakhstan.
More than 150 public- and private-sector documents were signed on the sidelines of the summit. Japan also announced new development assistance, including grants and loans for Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, along with a regional disaster risk reduction program.
World realizes Central Asia’s growing clout
Like the United States and the European Union, Japan is seeking to diversify critical mineral supplies and reduce reliance on China, which has tightened controls on rare earth exports. Central Asian leaders have also held summits this year with China, Russia and the EU as the region balances ties amid shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Faisal Javaid, head of the Department of International Relations at Federal Urdu University in Islamabad, said Central Asian governments are now pursuing more calculated and pragmatic foreign policies, balancing relations among major powers.
He said that Russia, weakened by sanctions, increasingly views Central Asia as a corridor for economic diversification and regional connectivity rather than as a purely strategic buffer.
Japan’s engagement in Central Asia might once have been seen as part of a broader Western strategy of strategic encirclement, but that window has largely closed, he said.
“Japan is a close ally of Washington and is politically viewed as part of the Western bloc,” he said. “At one point, this could have been seen as an opportunity for encirclement.”
He noted that in the early post-9/11 period, U.S. military bases operated in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, while the remaining Central Asian states granted transit and landing rights. Connectivity projects and political changes, including Kyrgyzstan’s Tulip Revolution, reinforced perceptions of expanding Western influence.
“In all five states, a sense of strategic pressure developed,” Faisal said. “At that time, it was a genuine opportunity for encirclement.”
He argued, however, that the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region has fundamentally altered the equation.
“After the U.S. withdrawal, there is no longer any realistic chance of encirclement of either China or Russia through Central Asia,” he said.
Muhammad Osama Shafiq, an associate professor at the Department of Mass Communication at Karachi University, agrees. He sees Central Asia poised to become a major economic and geopolitical hub as China and Russia consolidate influence.
He said the era of Western dominance is ending, with China emerging as a leading global power. “The unipolar world is over and a dipolar world has started,” he said.
Shafiq highlighted the Shanghai Cooperation Organization — which includes China, Russia and Central Asian states — as a key platform shaping the region’s economic and political trajectory. He said the bloc, backed by Pakistan, is likely to attract significant investment and drive regional growth, adding that Central Asia is unlikely to remain neutral in global affairs.
He also pointed to divisions within the West, intensified by the war in Ukraine, as boosting the influence of the China-Russia bloc.
To understand Japan’s move, it is useful to examine Britain’s relationship with China and the markedly different way London approaches Russia and Beijing, he said.
The United Kingdom has historically viewed Russia as a direct threat, but it does not perceive China in the same terms. That distinction was underscored recently when Britain released several individuals accused of spying for China, a move British media said came under pressure from Beijing.
The episode, however, coincides with deepening economic ties. China has signed deals worth about 500 million pounds with the UK and has emerged as one of Britain’s largest investors, after the United States and Arab countries.
Shafiq says those links suggest Britain is gradually aligning itself with the China-led bloc, even as it stops short of fully breaking away from the U.S.-led camp.
A similar calculation appears to be shaping Japan’s outreach to Central Asia, where Tokyo is seeking new opportunities and signaling a willingness to align more closely with emerging regional power centers, he concludes.
Central Asia’s rising economic importance, combined with strategic backing from China and Russia, positions the region as a focal point in an emerging global order, he adds.
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