Central Asia faces rising climate threats
Tajikistan and neighbors face increasing threats of drought, glacier loss, and water conflict unless urgent adaptation measures are taken
DUSHANBE, Tajikistan (MNTV) — Central Asia is heating up faster than the rest of the planet, placing countries like Tajikistan at the frontlines of a growing climate emergency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned.
In its latest multi-year forecast, the WMO predicts that every year between 2025 and 2029 will likely exceed the global climate norms of 1991–2020. Some years may even surpass the critical threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While the likelihood of a 2°C spike remains low in the short term, the long-term risks are escalating rapidly.
According to a report by independent outlet Asia-Plus, the warming trend is already disrupting key environmental systems across Tajikistan and its neighbors. Unpredictable precipitation, glacier loss, and droughts are threatening water supplies, agriculture, and energy sectors across the region.
The Himalayas and Pamirs—home to many of Central Asia’s vital glaciers—are melting at an alarming pace. These glaciers feed major rivers like the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, and their shrinkage jeopardizes hydroelectric capacity and regional water security. Earlier snowmelt and reduced spring runoff could also lead to both droughts and flash floods, experts say.
The WMO’s 2024 climate report has already confirmed this year as the hottest on record, with global average temperatures reaching 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. These shifts are impacting not only local weather but also atmospheric flows and monsoon systems across Asia.
Climate-related disasters—ranging from heatwaves to mudslides—are becoming more frequent in Tajikistan. The WMO’s Drought Impact Monitoring Baseline Assessment places Central Asia among the world’s highest-risk regions for drought.
Without immediate adaptation, experts warn, worsening droughts could intensify socio-economic instability and provoke future conflicts over shared water resources.
The WMO is calling for urgent regional coordination to manage water more effectively—especially in the transboundary river basins of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. Infrastructure upgrades, stronger climate monitoring systems, and equitable water-sharing frameworks are now seen as critical for the region’s stability.
As climate volatility increases, the message from international experts is clear: adaptation in Central Asia is no longer optional—it is a necessity for survival.
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