5 Million Canadian Visa Holders Were Expected to Leave in 2025. Have They Left?

That’s the question the opposition is asking the government in Ottawa.

Is this a fair question? Absolutely. Given the significant discussions surrounding migrants and international students and their purported impact on the nation’s current affordability crisis, the topic is on many Canadians’ minds and deserves an answer.

Before you jump on the opposition bandwagon and start accusing the government of a hidden agenda, pause and reconsider. Firstly, there is no evidence that there are indeed 5 million migrants who are hiding in the woods somewhere in Canada. Secondly, identifying and deporting individuals who have overstayed their visas is far more complex than it appears.

Our neighbor to the south, which has significantly more resources at its disposal, is struggling in this area. As of 2024, estimates suggest there are around 14 million unauthorised immigrants in the US, a figure that represents a considerable increase over previous years and is considered a record high. While some reports suggest this number may have peaked in 2024 and could decline in 2025, such optimism seems more wishful than factual.

Now, take the methods employed by former President Trump to tackle this issue. Method 1: Using military aircraft to send migrants, shackled, back to their home countries (like India, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico). Result: Worldwide shock, especially from ‘allies’ like India, who considered this a global humiliation. Method 2: Sending individuals to a supermax prison in El Salvador (CECOT), which was the subject of a CBS 60-minute documentary, has only fueled greater opposition to Trump’s policies, both domestically and internationally. Incidentally, after all this circus, the final numbers of “illegals” in America remain unaffected by these tiny dips.

Bringing the focus back to Canada, how unsure are those responsible for identifying “illegals” and returning them to their countries? The following two statements from the same department over the past two years certainly don’t inspire much confidence.

–            In 2023, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada estimated that between 20,000 and 500,000 persons were living illegally in Canada. Known officially as “undocumented migrants,” these were foreign nationals without authorization to reside or work in Canada. Critics argued that the substantial gap between these two numbers indicated a department that was grasping at straws.

–            Just a year later, in 2024, the immigration minister, Hon. Marc Miller, estimated that the number of foreigners living illegally in Canada could be as high as 300,000 to 600,000. While this is still not a definitive number, at least the gap is smaller.

By the end of 2025, the Canada Border Services Agency reported that its officers were removing unauthorized foreign nationals from the country at record rates. The total number of “enforced removals” rose to 18,785 individuals, up from 17,357 in 2024 and 15,207 in 2023.

Yet, the missing 5 million remain unaccounted for. So, where are they?

To illustrate the challenges we face, a statement made by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada to the House of Commons committee in October shed light on the uphill battle. It revealed that 47,175 people who entered Canada on student visas and were found to be “non-compliant” (meaning they never registered at a university as promised) could not be located.

What wasn’t mentioned was that even if the Canada Border Services Agency were able to find them, at the current rate of enforced removals, it would take over two years just to address this specific group of delinquent migrants. And we’re talking about numbers in millions here.

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